Multimodel combination techniques for analysis of hydrological simulations: Application to distributed model intercomparison project results

This paper examines several multimodel combination techniques that are used for streamflow forecasting: the simple model average (SMA), the multimodel superensemble (MMSE), modified multimodel superensemble (M3SE), and the weighted average method (WAM). These model combination techniques were evaluated using the results from the Distributed Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP), an international project sponsored by the National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD). All of the multimodel combination results were obtained using uncalibrated DMIP model simulations and were compared against the best-uncalibrated as well as the best-calibrated individual model results. The purpose of this study is to understand how different combination techniques affect the accuracy levels of the multimodel simulations. This study revealed that the multimodel simulations obtained from uncalibrated single-model simulations are generally better than any single-member model simulations, even the best-calibrated single-model simulations. Furthermore, more sophisticated multimodel combination techniques that incorporated bias correction step work better than simple multimodel average simulations or multimodel simulations without bias correction. © 2006 American Meteorological Society

Multi-model ensemble hydrologic prediction using Bayesian model averaging

Multi-model ensemble strategy is a means to exploit the diversity of skillful predictions from different models. This paper studies the use of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) scheme to develop more skillful and reliable probabilistic hydrologic predictions from multiple competing predictions made by several hydrologic models. BMA is a statistical procedure that infers consensus predictions by weighing individual predictions based on their probabilistic likelihood measures, with the better performing predictions receiving higher weights than the worse performing ones. Furthermore, BMA provides a more reliable description of the total predictive uncertainty than the original ensemble, leading to a sharper and better calibrated probability density function (PDF) for the probabilistic predictions. In this study, a nine-member ensemble of hydrologic predictions was used to test and evaluate the BMA scheme. This ensemble was generated by calibrating three different hydrologic models using three distinct objective functions. These objective functions were chosen in a way that forces the models to capture certain aspects of the hydrograph well (e.g., peaks, mid-flows and low flows). Two sets of numerical experiments were carried out on three test basins in the US to explore the best way of using the BMA scheme. In the first set, a single set of BMA weights was computed to obtain BMA predictions, while the second set employed multiple sets of weights, with distinct sets corresponding to different flow intervals. In both sets, the streamflow values were transformed using Box-Cox transformation to ensure that the probability distribution of the prediction errors is approximately Gaussian. A split sample approach was used to obtain and validate the BMA predictions. The test results showed that BMA scheme has the advantage of generating more skillful and equally reliable probabilistic predictions than original ensemble. The performance of the expected BMA predictions in terms of daily root mean square error (DRMS) and daily absolute mean error (DABS) is generally superior to that of the best individual predictions. Furthermore, the BMA predictions employing multiple sets of weights are generally better than those using single set of weights. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Delay-induced multiple stochastic resonances on scale-free neuronal networks

We study the effects of periodic subthreshold pacemaker activity and time-delayed coupling on stochastic resonance over scale-free neuronal networks. As the two extreme options, we introduce the pacemaker respectively to the neuron with the highest degree and to one of the neurons with the lowest degree within the network, but we also consider the case when all neurons are exposed to the periodic forcing. In the absence of delay, we show that an intermediate intensity of noise is able to optimally assist the pacemaker in imposing its rhythm on the whole ensemble, irrespective to its placing, thus providing evidences for stochastic resonance on the scale-free neuronal networks. Interestingly thereby, if the forcing in form of a periodic pulse train is introduced to all neurons forming the network, the stochastic resonance decreases as compared to the case when only a single neuron is paced. Moreover, we show that finite delays in coupling can significantly affect the stochastic resonance on scale-free neuronal networks. In particular, appropriately tuned delays can induce multiple stochastic resonances independently of the placing of the pacemaker, but they can also altogether destroy stochastic resonance. Delay-induced multiple stochastic resonances manifest as well-expressed maxima of the correlation measure, appearing at every multiple of the pacemaker period. We argue that fine-tuned delays and locally active pacemakers are vital for assuring optimal conditions for stochastic resonance on complex neuronal networks.Comment: 7 two-column pages, 5 figures; accepted for publication in Chao

Synergistic Effects of Branched-chain Amino Acids and Phenylalanine Addition on Major Volatile Compounds in Wine during Alcoholic Fermentation

The effects of adding branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs, including L-valine, L-leucine and L-isoleucine),L-phenylalanine and a mixture of them (BCAAs + Phe) on the fermentation profiles of wine yeastEC1118 and the production of volatile compounds were investigated in synthetic grape juice. The additionof selected amino acids had no considerable influence on the yeast growth and primary metabolites of thesugars. Adding BCAAs increased the production of higher alcohols, medium-chain fatty acids (MCFAs)and their corresponding ethyl esters. In comparison, adding Phe promoted the production of 2-phenylethanol,2-phenylethyl acetate and ethyl esters of MCFAs. Nevertheless, the supplementation of BCAAs +Phe further heightened the production of MCFAs, acetate esters and ethyl esters of MCFAs compared tothe single additions, but it attenuated the production of various higher alcohols (1-propanol, 2,3-butanedioland methionol) compared to the addition of BCAAs, and of 2-phenylethanol and 2-phenylethyl acetatecontents compared to the Phe addition. These results suggest that adding BCAAs or Phe is an efficient wayto adjust wine’s aromatic composition and complexity. Meanwhile, the combined addition of BCAAs + Phecould be a potential tool to further manipulate wine’s aromatic profile by accentuating or suppressing theformation of certain aroma compounds